USDA lowers 2018 soya carryover forecast, raises corn
December 05, 2017
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has cut its 2018 carryover forecasts for soyabean and wheat, while increasing that of corn, in its latest agri supply and demand report.
The ‘World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates’ report, published on 9 November, forecast soyabean’s carryover on 1 September 2018 at 425M bushels, down 5M bushels from a previous estimate in October, World Grain wrote on 10 November.
The lowered estimate, while still above the trade average of 430M bushels, was due to a likely decrease in projected 2017 production at 4.425bn bushels.
Other soyabean forecasts for 2016-2017 and 2017-2018 were unchanged with 2017’s carryover at 301M bushels.
In corn, the carryover estimate on 1 September 2018 was 2.487bn bushels, marking an increase of 6% or 147M bushels from October projections and an 8% increase over the 2.296bn bushel carryover estimate in 2017.
According to the USDA, the increase was due to a 298M bushel increase in expected 2017 corn production, which was now projected to reach 14.578bn bushels.
“Exports are raised 75M bushels, reflecting expectations of improved US competitiveness, reduced exports for Ukraine and increased demand from Mexico based on sharply lower sorghum production prospects,” the USDA said.
The wheat carryover projection for 1 June 2018 was down 25M bushels from October’s forecast to total 935M bushels, due to a likely increase in exports, which the department projected at 1bn bushels.