The absence of rapeseed deliveries from the Black Sea region due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is expected to significantly affect global shortages of the commodity, according to a report by Germany’s Union for the Promotion of Oil and Protein Plants (UFOP).
Ukraine is the top supplier of rapeseed to the European Union (EU), according to the 17 March report, and tight supply is already an issue.
Rapeseed imports to the EU in the 2019/20 season totalled 6M tonnes, of which around 2.7M tonnes (45%) came from Ukraine, UFOP said.
However, Ukraine's share of imports had fallen by 31% to 2M tonnes in the previous crop year, according to Eurostat data.
EU27 rapeseed imports in the current crop year until the end of February 2022 amounted to 3.23M tonnes, with Ukraine supplying by far the largest share (50% or around 1.6M tonnes).
If imports from Ukraine were to stop completely and in the long-term due to blockaded ports, the supply situation would be likely to tighten significantly, both within the EU-27 and globally, UFOP said.
UFOP also warned that the supply situation would remain the same later in the year if little or no planting could be done in the coming months in Ukraine.
A gap in supplies would have to be offset by an expansion of rapeseed area in Canada, the association said.
However, UFOP said high prices should incentivise producers to expand rapeseed area when planting later in the year.