The price gap between rapeseed and wheat, which widened at the end of 2015/16, could continue in 2016/17 because the EU harvest will be considerably smaller due to poor weather, according to a press release on 21 July from Germany’s Union for the Promotion of Oil and Protein Plants (UFOP).
“The European grain and oilseed traders' association Coceral/Copa-Cocega estimates the 2016/17 EU rapeseed supply at 21.2M tonnes, expecting it to be even tighter than the previous marketing year,” UFOP said.
“The reason is weather-related declines in yield. Although wheat was also affected by the unfavourable weather, especially in May and June 2016, prospects for supply are significantly better as global production is expected to hit a record.
“Meanwhile, there is scope for upward price movements of rapeseed based on decreasing production both in the EU and worldwide. In other words, the reduced supply to the market will be reflected in prices this year too. Buyers paid around €334 ex farm per tonne of rapeseed already in July 2016. This was just less than €200 per tonne more than what they paid for wheat.”