Soyabean production in Brazil is expected to reach 184M tonnes in 2026/27 – a record level for the third consecutive year and an increase of almost 2.2% on the previous year’s revised estimate of 180M tonnes, according to latest US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts.
In its ‘Brazil - Oilseeds and Products Update’ published on 6 July, the USDA said an increase in soyabean planted area was the main driver of record production as yields could be held back by higher production costs, elevated interest rates and El Niño-related weather concerns.
In addition, the increase in output could also be due to improved cultivation practices and better resource management, as well as investments in technology and machinery made in previous seasons, the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) report said.
The USDA maintained its initial 2026/27 soyabean planted area forecast of 50.5M ha, a 3% increase from the revised estimate of 49M ha for the previous year.
However, year-on-year area expansion was expected to moderate.
“This growth rate is lower than the average annual expansion over the past five years, estimated at 4.2%,” the USDA said.
“This new expansion rate suggests a slowdown in the growth of the Brazilian soyabean sector over upcoming seasons, primarily due to economic uncertainty and potential climate conditions that are already impacting other crops throughout the country and require producers to adjust their planting decisions.”
Most of the projected area expansion in 2026/27 was expected to be centred in the MATOPIBA region, which largely encompassed the Cerrado biome across the states of Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and Bahia.
“The region has several attributes that support soyabean area growth, including the availability of suitable land, comparatively less restrictive environmental regulations, favourable regional demographics and strategic infrastructure development potential, especially for commodity transportation via roads and waterways,” the USDA said.
Following the suspension of the Soy Moratorium in early 2026, an expansion of soyabean planted area in the northern region of Mato Grosso and other parts of the state of Pará and Maranhão was also expected, as Brazilian farmers could now gain greater autonomy to expand soyabean production by accessing new land in frontier areas of the Amazon biome.
However, any expansion would remain subject to other regulations, including environmental requirements under Brazil’s Forest Code and deforestation-free import regulations imposed by buyers such as the European Union (EU), the report said.
Brazilian soyabean exports were also forecast to reach another record level of 117.5M tonnes in 2026/27 – an increase of 2.1% compared to the current season’s revised estimate of 115M tonnes – supported by strong global demand, while domestic crushing was expected to continue expanding.
The projected increase was primarily driven by available supply and steady demand from China although it was expected to be more moderate than in previous seasons.
“This is mainly due to global trade agreements that may favour other soyabean-producing countries, such as Argentina, as well as the anticipated growth in domestic processing in the coming years,” the USDA said.
China remained the main destination for Brazilian soyabeans. In 2025, Brazil exported a record 108.1M tonnes of soyabeans, up 9.5% from the previous year. Of this total, 85.4M tonnes, or 78.9% of total exports, was shipped to China.
To date in 2026, March was the only month in which exports to Beijing were lower compared to the same period the previous year.
“This decline can be attributed to a combination of factors, including market diversification and stock management,” the USDA said.
“However, exports to China increased in April and May, bringing cumulative 2026 shipments to comparable levels as the same period last year.”
Brazilian soyabean crushing in 2026/27 was revised to 62.5M tonnes, up 2.4% compared to the previous year’s estimate, supported by projected available supply and steady domestic demand for meal and oil, although growth was slower than in 2025/26.
“Overall, crushing growth is expected to remain modest, below the five-year average, due to policy uncertainty and a more gradual expansion in biodiesel demand,” the USDA said.
However, COFCO’s recently announced investment of over US$400M to expand its plant in Rondonópolis, Mato Grosso, was expected to transform the facility into the largest soyabean crushing complex in Brazil, with a significant impact on national processing capacity and consumption.
“The project is intended to boost local soyabean processing capacity while reinforcing the company’s industrial presence in a key regional hub for production, storage and logistics,” the USDA said.
At the time of the report, the facility processed approximately 4,500 tonnes/day of soyabeans to produce soyabean meal and oil, and biodiesel.
On completion of the expansion, capacity was projected to rise to around 10,000 tonnes/day.
