Grain and oilseed crops in Brazil are forecast to rise in 2022/23, according to a forecast by the country’s National Supply Company (Conab) reported by World Grain.
In its 2022/23 Agricultural Perspectives report published on 24 August, Conab forecast total grain and oilseed output in the period at 308M tonnes, up from this year’s estimated total of 272M, with increased corn, rice and soyabean production.
“Despite the increase in production costs, the crops still have good liquidity and profitability for the Brazilian producer,” Conab president Guilherme Ribeiro was quoted as saying in World Grain’s 25 August report.
For soyabeans, Conab forecast record production of 150.36M tonnes for the coming season, World Grain wrote.
“Grain prices should remain attractive, as world supply and demand for the oilseed remain adjusted, reflecting a growth trend of 3.54% in area for the crop, which could reach 42.4M ha,” Conab said.
“The productivity of the 2022/23 cycle should show recovery in relation to the current crop after the climatic problems registered in the southern states of the country and in part of Mato Grosso do Sul. With the expected improvement in productivity, Conab estimates that the greater availability of grain should provide exports of around 92M tonnes, an increase of 22.2% compared to the 2021/22 harvest, a record for the crop.”
Although Conab forecasts a reduction in cultivated rice planted area in the upcoming season, output is expected to be higher.
“With the high cost of production, farmers tend to opt for crops that have better estimates of profitability and liquidity, such as corn and soyabeans,” the company said. “Even so, production in the 2022/23 crop should be around 11.2M tonnes, given the possibility of a recovery in productivity compared to 2021/22, which suffered from the availability of water resources for its good development.”
For corn, Conab forecast total production of 125.5M tonnes in the period, World Grain wrote.