Chinese soyabean imports in 2026/27 are expected to be 2M tonnes higher than the previous year’s forecast to reach 108M tonnes, according to a report by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).
The increase was due to a moderate increase in demand for soyabean meal by China’s feed industry, the 19 March report said.
Slower import demand growth was expected in the coming years in response to reduced growth in demand for soyabean meal, according to the report.
First-quarter 2026 imports from Argentina had already exceed the annual average volume recorded over the past five years, the ‘China - Oilseeds and Products Annual’ said.
Following a meeting between the Chinese and US leaders in October, when a trade and economic deal was reached to suspend retaliatory measures, Beijing had resumed US soyabean purchases.
As of 26 February, USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) export sales data indicated that China had purchased or shipped 10.8M tonnes of its 12M tonne purchase commitment of US soyabeans.
An additional 2.19M tonnes of US soyabeans had been sold to “unknown” destinations.
Although Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs) commonly requested export sales destinations to be listed as “Unknown,” it had not been confirmed if the 2.19M purchases to “unknown” destinations were for China.
In early February, President Trump announced that China had committed to importing an additional 8M tonnes of US soyabeans.
However, at the time of the report, Brazilian soyabean prices had fallen significantly below those of US origin.
“Despite the recent improvement in relations between China and the United States, structural price disparities continue to favour South American origins, as Brazil commences the harvest and marketing of its record-breaking new crop of soyabeans,” the USDA said.
In a bid to improve self-sufficiency, Beijing continued to support domestic oilseed production through research and development aimed at boosting yields, and policy signals and financial incentives, the USDA said.
For soyabeans, the USDA forecast a moderate increase in production in 2026/27 to 20.2M tonnes based on a planted area of 10.1M ha, up from the USDA’s revised 2025/26 estimate of 19.68M tonnes.
The increased production forecast was due to the continuation of government subsidies and improved prices for domestic soyabeans, which were expected to lead to a slightly expanded planted area.
China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) continued to expand the planted area for genetically engineered (GE) corn and soyabeans but these areas had not reached full commercial cultivation, the USDA said.
From 2023-2025, China approved 156 GE corn and 19 GE soyabean varieties for planting in approved areas.
Although GE corn was estimated to continue to account for the vast majority of China’s GE planted area in the near term, farmers in China’s leading soyabean producing provinces remained reluctant to adopt the technology, the report said.
