Soyabean demand in China is projected to rise in 2025/26 due to a slight decline in production and increased imports, according to a report by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).
China’s total domestic soyabean consumption in 2025/26 was forecast at 124.4M tonnes, up from 122M tonnes in 2024/25, he USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS)’s 19 March report said.
Soyabean crushing was projected at 101M tonnes in 2025/26, up 2% from the estimated 99M tonnes the previous year as feed demand slowly recovered, the Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report said.
Meanwhile, protein meal use for feed was expected to rise modestly to 101.8M tonnes in 2025/26 from 101.6M tonnes estimated for 2024/25.
“Chinese consumer demand continues to shift from pork to poultry and aquatic products, which has slowed the growth in demand for soyabean meal,” the USDA said.
“At the same time, thanks to biofuel policies and weather conditions, smaller exportable supplies of sunflowerseed, rapeseed and palm oil have pushed up prices of edible oils, leading to more reliance on crushing soyabeans for soybean oil in the Chinese market.”
Soyabeans, driven by increased production in South America are one of the few products seen to have near to medium-term future growth potential, according to the report.
China is expected to import 106M tonnes of soyabeans in 2025/26, up 1.9% from an estimated 104M tonnes in 2024/25, according to the ‘China - Oilseeds and Products Annual’ report.
The USDA said it expected South American exports, based on record or near record production, would allow China to continue to exceed 100M tonnes of imports.
At 19.8M tonnes in 2025/26, China’s soyabean production was expected to show a small dip from 20.65M tonnes in the previous marketing year.
China’s latest No 1 Document, published on 23 February, underlined food security as its top priority, outlining key resource allocation and development goals for China’s agricultural sector.
According to the report, China will continue to maintain crop acreage and focus on increasing crop yields and quality through large-scale enhancement programmes.
“Despite these official positions, the current range of policies is viewed as insufficient to overcome farmers’ reservations about planting additional soyabean area,” the USDA said.
“As soyabean production has grown beyond the volume needed for food production (estimated at 17.2M tonnes in 2024/25), the excess - which is uncompetitive against imported soyabeans in the crush market - has weighed on prices.”
