Cocoa futures fell sharply in mid-May as the Ivory Coast raised its 2025/26 crop forecast and rainfall in West Africa improved the outlook there, Cocoa Intel wrote.
According to the 15 May report, cocoa prices dropped sharply on 14 May, with futures in New York and London declining by approximately 4%-5% as traders liquidated long positions.
Against this backdrop, the Ivory Coast raised its 2025/26 cocoa production forecast to 2.2M tonnes, up from 1.8M-1.9M tonnes.
Meanwhile, at the time of the report, the West Africa cocoa belt was forecast to receive 80mm-150mm of rain over two weeks, supporting crop development.
The heaviest rainfall was expected in key cocoa-growing regions around Daloa, Gagnoa, Man, Divo and Duékoué.
Temperatures in the region were expected to remain seasonally moderate, limiting heat stress and creating favourable conditions for both the ongoing mid-crop and the early development of the 2025/26 main crop.
Ghana was also expected to receive regular and well-distributed rainfall, particularly across the Western North, Ashanti, and Brong-Ahafo regions, while southern Nigeria and Cameroon were forecast to remain seasonally wet, extending the favourable pattern across the broader West African cocoa belt.
Outside the futures market, industry attention remained focused on structural efforts to reduce dependence on conventional cocoa, the report said.
In one such venture, Voyage Foods and Cargill announced a partnership to scale cocoa-free chocolate alternatives, highlighting how climate volatility and elevated cocoa prices were accelerating investment in substitute ingredients, Cocoa Intel wrote.
Although the development did not have an immediate impact on cocoa demand, it underscored the strategic response of food manufacturers to sustained supply uncertainty and high raw material costs, the report said.
