Australia’s rapeseed production in 2025/26 is expected to be impacted by drought, according to forecasts by the Australian Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry (DAFF) reported by Germany’s Union for the Promotion of Plants and Protein (UFOP).
Reduced yields and a slight drop in planted area were expected to limit the country’s export potential, UFOP said on 11 June.
Published by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES), the new outlook presented a more cautious assessment of Australian canola cultivation, production and exports in the 2025/26 season compared to forecasts by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the International Grains Council (IGC), the association said.
ABARES projected a modest decrease in canola area to just under 3.4M ha, with production estimated at just over 5.7M tonnes – around 400,000 tonnes below the current season’s output.
According to research by Agrarmarkt Informations-Gesellschaft, the decline was primarily due to lower yields amid continued dry conditions. In many regions, soil moisture levels were below those of the previous year, which had a negative impact on sowing, plant growth and yields.
Meanwhile, the IGC expected Australian production to total around 6M tonnes, while the USDA projected slightly more than 6.1M tonnes.
The different forecasts were also reflected in export expectations, with ABARES projecting canola exports of 4.6M tonnes in 2025/26 – around 200,000 tonnes less than the current season and almost 1.4M tonnes below the 2023/24 level – and the USDA expecting export volumes to remain stable.
