Oilseed production in the European Union (EU) is forecast to rise by 3% in 2022/23, according to a report by Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) analysts at the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).
The rise was based on increased planted areas of about 10% for all three major oilseeds – rapeseed, soyabeans and sunflower – but lower average yields for sunflower and rapeseed due to hot and dry conditions in major producing regions, according to the 12 October Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report.
Soyabean planted area was forecast to increase by 11.1%, with rapeseed and sunflower areas expected to be up by 9.7% and 10.3% respectively.
“EU sunflower and soyabean areas in production are at a record high, and the rapeseed area increased for the first time after a significant decline in 2019 and following stagnation,” the report said.
“Attractive commodity prices, and to some extent uncertainty in the Black Sea market due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, are the major drivers for the increases in area. Favourable crush margins, particularly for sunflower and rapeseed, and increased domestic availability are forecast to lead to increased crush.”
However, the ongoing Russian/Ukraine conflict - along with other factors such as high and volatile prices for inputs and products - and hot and dry conditions in many EU regions, were causing significant uncertainties regarding future developments, according to the report.
“Ukraine is one of the world’s top agricultural producers and exporters and plays a critical role in supplying grains and oilseeds to the global market and to the EU. … Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has significantly impacted the EU’s grains and oilseeds markets. Ukrainian trade facilities are to a large extent running idle and sanctions imposed on Russia have altered global trade flows in 2021/22, creating a very volatile situation,” the report noted.
Higher rapeseed meal production was expected to lead to the increased use of rapeseed meal in animal feed, the report said, while soyabean meal for feed use was forecast to be flat. Sunflower meal feed use was projected to increase in the first half of 2022/23, but was expected to decrease later in the year, resulting in a forecast of total lower feed use of about 1.5%.
The EU’s use of vegetable oils in food consumption is rising, according to the report, with the use of soyabean oil forecast to increase due to reduced sunflower oil supply following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which had led to a shift to other vegetable oils.
“This is especially the case in countries that put in place recipe waivers for vegetable oil,” the report said.
In contrast, the industrial use of soyabean oil was expected to drop, while a higher domestic supply of rapeseed oil would also be increasingly used for human domestic consumption. In addition, the higher availability and lower prices of sunflower oil are expected to lead to a strong rebound of sunflower oil in food consumption, according to the report.
