The rapeseed harvest in the European Union (EU) is set to be up to 1.3M tonnes lower this year compared to 2023, according to latest EU Commission (EC) data reported by Germany’s Union for the Promotion of Oil and Protein Plants (UFOP).
Estimated at just under 18.4M tonnes, the reduced crop – down just less than 500,000 tonnes on the June forecast of 4.1M tonnes – would be mainly due to expectations of reduced rapeseed production in France, the 8 August report said.
Despite the outlook, this year’s volume is expected to exceed the long-term average rapeseed production rate of 17.8M tonnes, according to the report.
At 18.5M tonnes and 18.9M tonnes respectively, rapeseed production estimates for this year by the International Grains Council (IGC) and the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) were slightly more optimistic.
“Exceptionally high rainfall in the first half of the year affected the development of the crops and also significantly limited the yield potential,” the UFOP said.
At just less than 1.5M tonnes, the EC projected Romanian rapeseed production at just under 0.1M tonnes lower than it did in June and as much as 0.3M tonnes below the previous year’s harvest.
Forecasts for Hungary, Latvia and the Czech Republic were also considerably lower compared to the previous month’s estimates, with harvests in these countries also falling short of the previous year’s levels.
Although the EC only slightly lowered its forecast for Germany to 4M tonnes – a significant dip from the previous year’s volume of 4.2M tonnes – its estimate exceeded forecasts by many other market partners and the Deutscher Raiffeisenverband (DRV)’s latest forecast of just over 3.8M tonnes.
Forecasts for Slovakia, Ireland and Denmark were raised but remained below the previous year’s volumes.
According to research by Agrarmarkt Informations-Gesellschaft, higher production estimates for these countries would not offset the significant output decline in France and other countries.
Against this backdrop, rapeseed supply in the EU for the 2024/25 marketing year was set to be substantially lower than recent estimates, the report said.
