Worldwide rapeseed demand in 2024/25 is expected to exceed production, according to research by Agrarmarkt Informations-Gesellschaft reported by Germany’s Union for the Promotion of Oil and Protein Plants (UFOP).
Although global rapeseed consumption was expected to decline by 0.5% in 2024/25 to 88.7M tonnes, with the International Grains Council (IGC) forecasting world production at 87.2M tonnes, there would be a supply shortfall of 1.5M tonnes, the 4 July report said.
Against this backdrop, end-of-year stocks were likely to decrease more sharply than previously expected. At 5.6M tonnes, the volume of rapeseed in storage would be up to around 21% below the previous year’s level and 1M tonnes down on the previous month’s forecast.
In view of the IGC forecast, UFOP said it expected strong to rising prices during the planting season this year and advised farmers to plan rapeseed production areas to meet crop rotation requirements.
“Demand for rapeseed oil in biodiesel fuel and future hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) production is supported by the discontinuation of the option of crediting palm oil-based biofuels towards greenhouse gas reduction obligations in Germany and other member states, including France and Sweden,” UFOP said.
The forecast drop in worldwide global rapeseed production was due to a reduction in planted area and forecasts of lower yields, according to the IGC.
Global rapeseed production was expected to continue decreasing in the current crop year, with the IGC projecting Australian production at 5.4M tonnes, around 700,000 tonnes below its May forecast and 4.5% below the previous year’s level.
At 4.9M tonnes, Ukraine’s rapeseed harvest was expected to be around 500,000M tonnes less than previously forecast due to changeable weather, with favourable conditions during the winter months followed by dry spells and extreme heat in weeks prior to the report.
Western Europe had also experienced adverse weather conditions, with heavy rainfall, waterlogging and pests impacting crop development, particularly in France, Germany and the UK, the report said.
Due to this, EU production was currently forecast at 18.7M tonnes, which would be a 5.1% decline from the previous year.
