Rapeseed production in 2022/23 is forecast to reach a record high globally, with Russia and Australia expected to see larger harvests, according to United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) data reported by Germany’s Union for the Promotion of Oil and Protein Plants (UFOP).
The USDA expects worldwide rapeseed output to rise to a new record level of 82.5M tonnes in the period, according to the report said, representing a rise of 2.2M tonnes from the July estimate and up 14% compared to the previous year.
Russia’s rapeseed output was expected to reach a record 3.9M tonnes – an increase of 1.1M tonnes compared to the July estimate – which was mainly due to an expansion in area, UFOP said.
The Australian rapeseed harvest was also expected to be around 700,000 tonnes larger than previously expected, due to favourable growing conditions, with 6.1M tonnes now forecast.
In the EU-27, the rapeseed harvest is likely to reach around 18M tonnes, around 100,000 tonnes more than forecast in July, according to the report.
With global consumption expected to total 79.2M tonnes – 830,000 tonnes more than expected in July and 5.1M tonnes compared to the previous season – there would be a 3.3M tonne surplus for the first time in three years, the report said.
For Russia and China, the USDA said it expected higher demand than previously forecast.
Global 2022/23 ending stocks are likely to increase significantly due to expected higher rapeseed production, according to the report. At 6.8M tonnes, the USDA expects stocks to be around 900,000 tonnes higher than in the previous month's estimate and 47.5% higher compared to the previous year's figure. The figures would represent the largest ending stocks in three years, the USDA said.
UFOP said it expected the estimated volume would cover demand for all food and feed uses as well as biofuel production.
German oil mills processed approximately 10M tonne/year of rapeseed into 4M tonnes/year of rapeseed oil.
The current challenge was securing the supply chain to ensure the commodity could be processed on time, UFOP said.
The association said it was concerned about transportation issues including low water levels in rivers and the shift of transport to rail, which was near its capacity limit.