Worldwide sunflowerseed production in 2024/25 is expected to remain below the previous year’s record level, according to the latest forecast by the International Grains Council (IGC) reported by Germany’s Union for the Promotion of Plants and Protein (UFOP).
The IGC lowered its forecast for global sunflowerseed output in 2024/25 from its April forecast of 58.1M tonnes to 57.21M – compared to 57.4M tonnes the previous year – due to expectations of smaller harvests in Russia and Ukraine, the 31 May report said.
Above average yields were only partially expected to compensate for a reduced planted area, with production expected to fall approximately 300,000 tonnes short of the previous year’s volume.
According to research by Agrarmarkt Informations-Gesellschaft, the main reason for the lower forecast is expectations of smaller harvests in Argentina, Russia and China.
However, the forecast for Argentina was uncertain at the time of the report as sowing operations were not due to begin for another three months.
The IGC expects low prices and ample global supply will result in Argentine farmers scaling back sunflowerseed planted area.
In addition, the La Niña weather phenomenon could impact yield potential.
Russian production was forecast at 17.2M tonnes, down around 200,000 tonnes from the April forecast and 1.1% lower than in 2023/24. The country was still set to remain the world’s leading sunflowerseed supplier.
The IGC maintained its previous month’s forecast for the EU27 at 10.7M tonnes – 500,000 tonnes more than the previous year.
For Ukraine, the IGC also maintained its earlier forecast although the harvest there was likely to decline by 300,000 tonnes to 16.2M tonnes.
At 700,000 tonnes, US production was expected to be around 100,000 tonnes lower than forecast in April, due to a sharp drop in sunflowerseed area in the Dakota states, which account for approximately 80% of US sunflower planted area. This would be the smallest harvest in 48 years.
