IATA says forecast for SAF production to triple to 1.9bn litres this year on track

Although the projection would account for 0.53% of aviation’s total fuel needs in 2024, IATA said governments could introduce several measures to accelerate SAF use.

“SAF will provide about 65% of the mitigation needed for airlines to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050. The … expected tripling of SAF production in 2024 from 2023 is encouraging, [but] we still have a long way to go,” IATA’s director general Willie Walsh said.

As SAF is part of the renewable fuel sector, increasing renewable fuel production was key to raising SAF’s potential, IATA said on 3 June.

With around 140 renewable fuel projects with the capability to produce SAF scheduled to be in production by 2030, total renewable fuel production capacity could reach 51M tonnes by 2030, with production capacity spread across almost all regions, the association said.

Renewable fuel production potential could exceed this estimate as investor interest in SAF increased, according to IATA.

With a typical three-to-five-year time lag from planning to production, investment announcements as late as 2027 could be in production by 2030 while not all announcements reached final investment decisions.

Governments, through the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), have set an ambition to achieve a 5% CO₂ emissions reduction for international aviation from SAF by 2030. To achieve that ambition, around 27% of all expected renewable fuel production capacity available in 2030 would need to be SAF. Currently, SAF accounts for just 3% of all renewable fuel production.

“The interest in SAF is growing and there is plenty of potential. But the concrete plans that we have seen so far are far from sufficient. Governments have set clear expectations for aviation … they now need to implement policies to ensure that airlines can … purchase SAF in the required quantities,” Walsh added.

Potential policy measures to boost SAF production included: diversifying feedstocks; co-processing; incentives to improve the output mix at renewable fuel facilities and incentives to boost investments in renewable fuel production.

“No one policy or strategy will get us to the needed levels … using a combination of all potential policy measures, producing sufficient quantities of SAF is absolutely possible,” Walsh said.

IATA (International Air Transport Association) represents around 330 airlines comprising over 80% of global air traffic.

In December 2023, IATA reported that around 69M tonnes of renewable fuel capacity were expected to be available by 2028. Its most recent estimate is for 51M tonnes of renewable fuel capacity to be available in 2030 was based on currently announced projects.

Several factors had resulted in the reduced estimate, including the use of more stringent criteria to evaluate projects.

In addition, some projects had progressed at a slower pace towards commercial operations, IATA said.