A new report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a 20% increase in the renewable fuels sector by 2030 under current market conditions, according to a report by SAF Magazine.
Despite the sector’s expansion, renewable fuels’ share of total energy demand is expected to remain below 6% in 2030, according to the report.
However, for growth in renewable fuels to be in line with achieving net-zero energy sector emissions by 2050, the report estimated renewable fuel adoption would need to double by 2030, the 10 October report said.
Published annually, this year’s IEA’s Renewable Market Report included a chapter on renewable fuels for the first time, outlining expected growth in liquid biofuels, including sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), biogas and other forms of bioenergy to 2030.
Bioenergy was expected to account for almost all growth in the renewables sector until 2030, with the greatest expansion in the industrial sector, followed by transportation and buildings.
Although the IEA forecast biofuels used in transportation would remain dominant in the period, it noted increased biofuel use in the aviation and maritime sectors.
The report forecast that biofuel use in aviation would account for approximately 2% of total aviation fuel supply by 2030, from near zero last year, with the increase expected to be supported by mandates in the European Union (EU), the UK and the USA.
In the maritime sector, EU legislation was expected to drive growth, with biofuels accounting for almost 0.5% of international shipping fuel demand by 2030.
