After an unusually warm January, India will be warmer and drier this month, raising risks for key crops such as wheat, rapeseed and chickpeas, according to local weather office data reported by The Star.
The country’s northwestern wheat-growing region was expected to receive less than 78% of its long-term average rainfall, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director-general of the India Meteorological Department, said on 31 January.
Maximum and minimum temperatures in most parts of the country would be above average in February, impacting crops such as wheat and barley, he added.
“Below-normal cold-wave days are likely over several parts of northwest and adjoining central India,” he was quoted as saying in the 1 February report.
Crops such as wheat, rapeseed and chickpeas are planted from October to December and, for optimal yields, require cold conditions during their growth and maturity stages.
In January, minimum and maximum temperatures were above average as the country received 31.5% lower-than-average rainfall, Mohapatra said.
According to farm ministry data, Indian farmers had planted wheat and rapeseed on a record 33.42M ha and 8.94M ha, respectively, by 23 January.
“February is a crucial month for grain development. A sharp rise in temperatures during this period would lead to lower yields and could wipe out the gains from higher planting,” a Mumbai-based dealer with a global trade house was quoted as saying.
Any drop in the rapeseed crop could force India, the world’s biggest vegetable oil importer, to increase its cooking oil imports, dealers said.
India buys palm oil mainly from Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, while it imports soyabean oil and sunflower oil from Argentina, Brazil, Russia and Ukraine, according to the report.
Against this backdrop, in its 4 February report on the country, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) revised its forecast for India’s rapeseed planted area and production due to farmers shifting to wheat cultivation in pursuit of higher returns.
The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) lowered its rapeseed planted area forecast by 1.6% from 9.25M ha to 9.1M ha.
“The main driver for this was a shift by farmers to wheat after the strong monsoon of 2025, which boosted soil moisture and water resources in favour of the crop,” the USDA said.
“The improved conditions led farmers in Rajasthan (the largest rapeseed producer) and neighbouring regions of Uttar Pradesh and Haryana to favour wheat, which offers a higher average yield of approximately 3.5 tonnes/hectare compared to rapeseed’s 1.2-1.4 tonnes/hectare.”
The latest FAS forecast for India’s 2025/26 wheat plantings and output was for a record harvested area of 32.8M ha and production of 117.9M tonnes.
Despite the reduction from the previous forecast, the 2025/26 rapeseed acreage remained 2% higher than the previous year, driven by strong 2024/25 market prices, the FAS said.
Although the agency reduced its forecast for rapeseed crushing from 10.9M tonnes to 10.7M tonnes, reflecting decreases in planted area and production, the revised estimate was still 2% higher than last year’s figure of 10.5M tonnes.
The rapeseed oil production estimate was reduced by 2% to 4.2M tonnes, reflecting updated acreage and output figures, although production remained above last year’s level due to favourable weather, improved seed varieties and higher oil content.
