The International Grains Council (IGC) has lowered its global soyabean forecast, according to a report by Germany’s Union for the Promotion of Oil and Protein Plants (UFOP).
In its latest report, the IGC lowered its estimate for global soyabean supply in 2022/23 by 2M tonnes to 387M tonnes, UFOP wrote on 7 October.
However, despite the IGC’s lowered estimate, supply in the current crop year was likely to reach a record high, exceeding the previous year’s level by just less than 10%.
The revised estimate was mainly due to lower US crop expectations, with US soyabean production forecast at around 119.2M tonnes, which was 4.1M tonnes lower than the previous forecast.
Poor growing conditions had recently reduced the yield potential, the report said, and the US soyabean planted area was likely to be smaller than forecast in August.
Recent rainfall in some US regions, however, was seen to be potentially favourable for late-season crops.
The IGC’s increased its estimate for Brazilian soyabean supply to 146M tonnes, up around 1M tonnes compared to the previous month’s forecast, due to an expected 3% expansion in planted area.
Ukraine was also forecast to harvest more soyabeans this year – 3.6M tonnes, which would be an increase of 0.7M tonnes.
The IGC’s latest estimate for global soyabean consumption was 378M tonnes, which was down 1M tonnes on the August outlook, but 4.3% higher than in 2021/22. Demand, meanwhile, is expected to see a sharp increase, particularly in China, but equally in Bangladesh and Pakistan.
Due to the bumper soyabean crop, 2022/23 ending stocks were also expected to increase and this would result in a global soyabean surplus of 9M tonnes, according to research by Agrarmarkt Informations-Gesellschaft.
Taken with beginning stocks, 2022/23 ending stocks were expected to increase to around 53M tonnes, which was 1M tonnes more than forecast in August, representing a 19.3% rise on the previous year’s figure.
Key exporters’ ending stocks were expected to increase 19.5% compared to last year.
US soyabean stocks were forecast to drop for the fourth consecutive season, falling to 4.6M tonnes, the lowest level in 13 years.
