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Growing demand for biomass-based diesel advanced biofuels can be met with projected supply of lipid feedstocks until 2030 without affecting food resources, according to a new study commissioned by the Advanced Biofuels Association (ABFA).

In the study, LMC International looked at the outlook for lipid feedstock supply to see if could meet ABFA’s objectives for carbon reduction by reaching 21bn gallons (80bn litres) of biomass-based diesel by 2040, ABFA said on 7 December.

Total global lipid feedstock supply is expected to increase from 246M tonnes in 2020 to 330M tonnes in 2030, according to the LMC International study.

To reach ABFA’s 2040 target, production would need to reach close to 9bn gallons (34bn litres) in 2030, requiring 32M tonnes of lipids, according to the study, with feedstock supplies in the USA found to be sufficient to meet the forecast demand after accounting for food.

“This analysis shows conclusively that we have enough feedstock in the USA to build the biodiesel volumes currently mandated under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS),” ABFA president Michael McAdams said.

“It’s also very encouraging to know the USA has the resources to expand into new renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuels applications.”

ABFA said it had commissioned LMC’s analysis to offer hard data as a resource for government agencies and Congress when setting future renewable volume obligation (RVO) mandates under the RFS.

Soya oil has the most potential for growth in the USA, according to the report, while the prospects for waste oils are limited due to the fact that collection and extraction rates are already high.

Outside the USA, the report said there was more scope for growth in waste oil supply in countries with less developed collection networks.

Palm oil is a significant source of lipid supply to the world market, according to the report. However, palm oil growth was set to slow with other oils making up a growing proportion of the market.

Global demand for non-biofuel end uses (food, feed and chemicals) was forecast to rise from 168M tonnes in 2020 to 210M tonnes in 2030, the LMC International report said.

Demand for lipids from biofuels in the four key biofuel consuming countries was forecast to reach 51M tonnes in 2030, up from 24M tonnes in 2020, the report said.

ABFA represents more than 45 member companies in the USA and around the world who develop, produce, and distribute advanced biofuels. Collectively, these companies produce 5bn gallons (19bn litres) of biodiesel and renewable diesel each year, including cellulosic heating oil. ABFA also represents distribution firms in the USA.

LMC International is a UK consulting firm specialising in global economic and market analysis of agricultural feedstocks and their major end products, with a special focus on biofuels.