The Mediterranean Sea will become an emission control area (ECA) from 1 May 2025, under which ship sulphur content will need to be reduced from 0.5% to 0.1% unless a vessel scrubber is fitted, Riverside Tanker Chartering wrote in its November market report.
ECAs are sea areas in which strict controls were established in 2005 to minimise airborne emissions from ships under Annex VI of the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL). Specific emissions include sulphur oxide, nitric oxide, ozone depletion substances and volatile organic compounds.
Current ECAs are the Baltic Sea, North Sea, North American Area West, North American Area East, Hawaii and Unites States Caribbean.
In other emission news, the 82nd session of International Maritime Organization (IMO)’s Marine Environment Protection Committee held on 30 September-4 October produced a draft legal text to introduce a fuel levy and a global fuel standard to incentivise the production and use of low-carbon fuel in shipping, Riverside Tanker Chartering wrote.
“Complex negotiations will take place before next April’s final crunch talks, but shipowners, analysts and environmental groups welcomed the move,” the report said, adding that the road to decarbonisation remained unclear.
Attacks by Houthis had led to vessel transits through the Red Sea dropping by about 50% since December 2023, adding tonne-miles around the Cape of Good Hope, it said.
Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA)’s World Energy Outlook 2024 had assessed the prospects of oil demand based on current government policies, stated pledges and what was required to hit net zero emissions by 2050.
“Under current policies, demand for international bunkers (including oil for marine and aviation) would continue to rise until 2050.”
However, if shipping followed the ambitions of the IMO and EU, demand would fall by 2030 with continued declines over the next two decades, Riverside Tanker Chartering wrote.
In contrast to other forecasters, OPEC’s 2024 World Oil Outlook report estimated that global oil demand would grow for a longer period, reaching hit 120M barrels per day (bpd) by 2050, with marine bunkers continuing to rise from 4.2M bpd to reach 5M bpd by 2035 before levelling off.
