More than half of all adults around the world are predicted to be overweight or obese by 2050, according to a new study of global data reported by the BBC.
Published in The Lancet, the study covered more than 200 countries, the 4 March report said.
The report also predicted that a third of children, teenagers and young adults would be overweight or obese by 2050.
In addition, researchers warned that obesity levels were predicted to accelerate rapidly during the remainder of this decade, particularly in lower-income countries.
However, experts quoted in the report said that if governments took urgent action now, there was still time to prevent what they described as a “profound tragedy”.
By 2021, almost half the global adult population – 1bn men and 1.11bn women aged 25 or older – were overweight or obese, double the proportion living with these conditions in 1990.
If trends continued, global rates of overweight and obese adults would rise to about 57.4% for men and 60.3% for women by 2050, the study said.
According to the report, the countries with the highest number of overweight or obese citizens in 2050 will be China (627M), India (450M) and the USA (214M).
However, population growth would mean the number in sub-Saharan Africa would increase by more than 250% to 522M, researchers predicted.
In Nigeria, for example, the number was projected to more than triple – from 36.6M in 2021 to 141M in 2050, making it the country with the fourth-largest population of overweight or obese adults.
The authors acknowledged the study did not consider the potential impact of new weight loss medications and that they could play a significant role in the future.
The research was led by Prof Emmanuela Gakidou, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington in the USA.
“[Governments] can use our country specific estimates on the stage, timing, and speed of current and forecasted transitions in weight to identify priority populations experiencing the greatest burdens of obesity who require immediate intervention and treatment, and those that remain predominantly overweight and should be primarily targeted with prevention strategies,” she was quoted as saying.
“The unprecedented global epidemic of overweight and obesity is a profound tragedy and a monumental societal failure.”
Among young people, obesity rates are surging, according to the study.
Rates of obesity in children and younger teenagers have increased from 8.8% to 18.1% between 1990-2021 while the rate among younger adults (under 25s) more than doubled from 9.9% to 20.3%.
By 2050 one in three young people would be affected, the report said.
The co-lead author of the report, Dr Jessica Kerr of the Murdoch Children’s Research Institute in Australia, was quoted as saying the figures presented a real challenge to health care systems in the future.
“But if we act now, preventing a complete transition to global obesity for children and adolescents is still possible,” she said.
