The Philippines, a major player in the global coconut oil market, will improve its coconut oil output and sustain exports growth, according to a report by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).
In its 16 April ‘Philippines - Oilseeds and Products Annual’, the USDA said the Philippines could export 1.19M tonnes of coconut oil in the 2026/2027 marketing year, which begins in October, compared to projected shipments of 1.13M tonnes in the current year.
“[The increase is] in line with higher coconut oil production from increased copra crush and improved extraction,” the USDA said.
“Industry contacts report that exporters are maintaining their focus on key traditional markets while monitoring evolving quality and sustainability requirements in major destinations.”
Despite the projected growth in shipments, the agency said export volumes remained below 2024/25 levels as a larger share of output continued to supply domestic industrial and food use, including biodiesel blending under the B3 biodiesel mandate.
At 90,000 tonnes, coconut oil imports were expected to remain flat in 2026/27.
The USDA also expected coconut oil production to grow to 1.76M tonnes in 2026/27, an increase of 3.5%, compared to 1.7M tonnes in the current marketing year, due to improved copra crushing, which was expected to reach 2.7M tonnes in the upcoming marketing year from an output of 2.65M tonnes.
However, this increase was due to increased copra availability rather than any expansion in installed milling capacity, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) report said.
According to the United Coconut Association of the Philippines’ Coconut (UCAP) Industry Kit from August 2025, as of July 2024, the Philippines had 61 coconut oil mills with a combined capacity of about 4.14M tonnes/year. While that figure was 12.3% higher than the 3.69M tonnes recorded in 2022, the USDA said no additional capacity increases were expected during the forecast period.
“Higher crush volumes reflect improved utilisation of existing plants as weather conditions normalise and coconut output gradually recovers,” the USDA said.
Based on the same UCAP report, the estimated capacity utilisation of oil mills increased from 69.5% in 2022 to 78.7% in 2024.
Copra output was projected to rebound to 2.65M tonnes in 2026/27 due to improved rainfall last year and the recovery of trees – 1.9% higher than the USDA’s adjusted estimates of 2.6M tonnes in the current marketing year.
“Despite this improvement, production remains highly sensitive to weather conditions and is constrained by the predominance of smallholder, low-input production systems, which keep yields below those of other major coconut-producing countries,” the USDA said.
Total coconut harvested area was expected to increase by 1.4% to 3.65M ha in 2026/27 compared to the previous marketing year.
However, in the near term, changes in output were driven more by weather and tree productivity than by large shifts in planted area, as most existing coconut land remained in production and large‑scale conversion from coconuts was limited by the crop’s importance to rural livelihoods, the USDA said.
