Record high world soyabean harvest forecast

Global soyabean output as forecast by the International Grain Council (IGC) is expected to reach a record high in 2020/21, the Union for the Promotion of Oil and Protein Plants (UFOP) reported on 14 April.

The rise in global soyabean output would be due to a combination of another bumper crop in Brazil, a standard US crop and production increases in smaller soya-producing countries, according to the IGC.

After a decline of almost one fifth in production in the past season, the IGC predicted a rebound in US soyabean production for 2020/21. Coupled with increases in Brazil and smaller soya-producing countries, the world’s soya harvest area could see a growth of 4% compared to the previous year.

In combination with slight yield gains, the IGC held out the prospect of a 7% production increase to a new peak of 366M tonnes.

The area harvested in the USA in 2020/21 was projected at 34M hectares. The harvest could rise to 114.2M tonnes as a result. However, this was a provisional forecast.

Meanwhile, in Canada low prices and trade uncertainties over the disagreement with China would be likely to lead to a shrinkage in production area in 2020/21. Despite this, assuming average yields, Canadian output could still rise 8% year-on-year to 6.6M tonnes.

The IGC estimated that 2020/21 global soyabean consumption would surge to a new peak – 365M tonnes – for the ninth year running. This would mean that world soyabean ouput would be likely to cover demand.