Turkey faces a sharply reduced olive oil campaign, with production expected to fall well below last year’s record volume of 475,000 tonnes, Olive Oil Times wrote.
According to estimates, the country will produce 310,000 tonnes of olive oil in 2025/2026, with concerns about rising costs and financial pressures impacting the sector.
Growers and officials quoted in the 1 December report said the expected decline was due to the trees’ natural biennial cycle and unusually harsh weather during flowering, which had damaged fruit set across major producing regions.
Producers across Turkey had also reported low yields, with weather conditions and unfavourable exchange rates contributing to the challenges facing the industry, Olive Oil Times wrote.
“The 2025/26 National Olive and Olive Oil Harvest Forecast and Assessment Committee has determined that Turkey will produce 310,000 tonnes of olive oil and 740,000 tonnes of table olives in the 2025/2026 production season,” Mustafa Tan, chairman of the Turkish National Olive and Olive Oil Council (UZZK) was quoted as saying.
“As in all countries, these estimates may be revised as the harvest progresses and concludes.”
Tan noted that early-season damage from cold weather and drought conditions had started to ease after consistent rainfall in October.
He expected yields to improve as the harvest progressed. Factoring in remaining stocks and projected output, he estimated that more than 500,000 tonnes of olive oil would be available to Turkish producers and exporters by the end of the season.
However, he acknowledged that rising costs and financial pressures continued to impact the sector.
“As in every country, increasing production costs and financial difficulties are negatively affecting producers, industrialists and exporters,” he said.
In its October outlook, the International Olive Council (IOC) projected an even lower national yield in 2025/26, estimating an output of 280,000-290,000 tonnes.
Some analysts had forecast a larger decline. Agriculture journalist Ali Ekber Yıldırım reported that most producers, traders and millers he had interviewed expected an output of 150,000-180,000 tonnes.
“One or two people suggested that with recent rains, it could reach 200,000 tonnes,” he added.
Alper Alhat, chairman of the Akhisar Commodity Exchange, also forecast production would be below 200,000 tonnes and likely to be around 170,000-180,000 tonnes.
“This year, the yield will be low but quality will be high,” he was quoted as saying.
Producers across Turkey had cited severe weather as the dominant factor behind the poor outlook, Olive Oil Times wrote.
“A very harsh winter last year and the summer drought have negatively impacted the olive yield,” İsmail Şahin of Zagoda Olive Oil was quoted as saying.
“The yield this season is very low, well below our expectations. This low yield applies to all of Turkey, which will cause prices to rise.”
An unfavourable exchange rate – with the Turkish lira lagging inflation – had further reduced producers’ competitiveness, Şahin added.
“This will make it very difficult for Turkish olive oil to compete with olive oils from other countries in international markets,” he said.
