Sunflowerseed production in Turkey is expected to drop by 10% in 2025/26 compared to the previous year due to extreme drought conditions, according to a US Department of Agriculture (USDA) report.
To compensate for the forecast decline in production, the USDA raised its sunflowerseed and oil imports estimates in its Turkey: Oilseeds and Products Update.
The Turkish government had introduced lower tariffs to spur imports of these commodities throughout the marketing year, the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS)’s 25 September report said.
In 2025/26 (September-August), the country’s sunflowerseed harvested area was projected at 760,000ha – a 10% year-on-year increase – due to increased spring plantings in response to strong prices, particularly for sunflowerseeds for crushing.
However, despite the planted area expansion, sunflowerseed production was lowered to 1.2M tonnes due to yield-related losses resulting from extreme dry weather conditions throughout most of the country.
The 2025/26 production forecast was broken down into: seed for crushing (1.05M tonnes); confectionery (110,000 tonnes) and planting (40,000 tonnes).
Farmers from the Thrace region in the northwest of the country, which normally accounted for half of the country’s sunflower production, had faced serious drought conditions, the report said.
Yield losses of 50% upwards compared to the long-term average have been reported and production in the region will reportedly drop by more than 100,000 tonnes compared to the previous year, according to the report.
“Given these losses and the continued threat of drought, farmers in the Thrace region are expected to switch away from sunflowers in the coming years and start growing more drought-resistant crops like canola and barley,” the USDA said.
“The country’s other major sunflower-growing regions, Central Anatolia and the Çukurova region, have also faced drought-related setbacks that have pushed yields lower than normal.”
However, losses in these regions were not expected to be as severe as those in Thrace.
Despite the contraction in 2025/26 sunflowerseed production, consumption was expected to remain almost unchanged from the previous year’s revised total of approximately 2.1M tonnes.
This projection assumed an increase in sunflowerseed imports to help offset the drop in production.
The 2024/25 consumption estimate was revised slightly higher year-on-year to nearly 2.1M tonnes, due to an increase in crushing activity reported during the last quarter in response to higher sunflowerseed prices driven by concerns over a potential shortfall in domestic and regional sunflowerseed production.
To compensate for the expected decline in domestic sunflowerseed production in 2025/26, imports were forecast higher year-on-year at 1M tonnes, up 200,000 tonnes from the previous year.
“This forecast assumes continued availability of sunflowerseeds from Black Sea countries, which have historically been the main source for Turkey’s sunflowerseed imports,” the USDA said.
According to trade sources quoted in the report, importers have already ordered deliveries for 300,000 tonnes for the first three months (September-November) of the 2025/26 season.
In anticipation of the need to import more sunflowerseed (and oil), the government announced in June that it would open a lower-duty quota for 1M tonnes of sunflowerseed and/or 400,000 tonnes of crude sunflower oil from January-May 2026.
In August, the government took an additional step to prevent a shortfall in sunflowerseed and derivative products and announced it was lowering the tariff on imported sunflowerseed to 12% from October 2025-May 2026 and to 20% from June-September 2026.
Sunflowerseed exports in 2025/26 were forecast at 100,000 tonnes, which was unchanged from the USDA figure for the period but down year-on-year due to the expected downturn in production.
“This projection is mostly made up of confectionery and planting sunflowerseeds originating in Turkey with a smaller amount of trans-shipments of seeds for crushing,” the USDA said.
Sunflowerseed stock levels for 2025/26 were forecast at 110,000 tonnes.
