Rapeseed yields in the UK are forecast to be as much as 38% lower this year compared with the previous year – and up to 54% down on the average yield since 2015 – after extreme wet weather hit crops, according to a report by non-profit organisation the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU).
The ECIU said its analysis came as figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that the average price of olive oil was still rising, and at the time of the report, was £8.04 (US$10.06) a bottle, up 39% from £5.78 (US$7.23) at the same time last year and by 108% since the same point in 2022.
With rapeseed yields expected to be so much lower this year, vegetable oil prices could rise, impacting both households and commercial users such a fish and chip shops and catering companies, according to the 17 April report.
“We’re seeing a double whammy on cooking oil. Be it Spanish olive oil or British vegetable oil, climate extremes are hurting crops and consumers are paying for it at the supermarket checkout,” ECIU land analyst Tom Lancaster said.
“Climate change has added £361 (US$450) to food bills in the past couple of years and the failure of the British rapeseed oil harvest could see a hike in vegetable oil prices.”
Meanwhile, heatwaves, droughts and wildfires last year in the Mediterranean – the world’s top olive-producing region – had reduced yields and olive oil availability.
In 2023, the UK imported 62M kg of olive oil worth £333M (US$415M), with 89% coming directly from the Mediterranean, the ECIU said.
However, in 2022, the UK imported 65M kg worth £254M (US$317M) from the region, meaning more than £45M (US$56M) was paid for almost 10M kg less last year. This was due to a combination of climate change-driven shortages and other factors like Brexit.
According to previous ECIU analysis, the biggest driver of this price increase for UK households was climate change, which added an average of £361 (US$450) to household food bills in 2023 compared to 2021.
