Ukrainian grain exports are forecast to increase in the remainder of the 2023/24 marketing year after operations resumed at the country’s major Black Sea ports, according to a US Department of Agriculture (USDA) report.
Following Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain initiative (BSGI) in July 2023, the country launched attacks on grain infrastructure at Ukraine’s sea ports and on the Danube River and the total volume of Ukrainian grain exports dipped to 2M tonnes in September.
However, by December the volume of exports had surged to 5.2M tonnes due to a reduction in the frequency of strikes and Ukraine’s development of a new export corridor, the USDA’s 6 February Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) report said.
For the 2023/24 (July-June) season, the FAS forecast an 8% year-on-year increase in corn exports to 29.2M tonnes, a 3% increase in wheat exports to 17.7M tonnes, a 22% increase in barley exports to 3.3M tonnes and an almost 10-fold increase in rye exports to 170,000 tonnes.
“Based on the high December 2023 export rate, if Ukraine maintains average monthly exports of around 4M tonnes for all grains combined for the remainder of the marketing year, they will export the vast majority of the harvest, leaving an estimated 5M tonnes total for all grains remaining as ending stocks for 2023/24,” the FAS said.
The USDA also noted that the efficiency of Danube River export routes and trans-shipment capacity at the Port of Constanta in Romania continued to increase “providing additional opportunities to maintain export levels. Increased export estimates assume no major damage from attacks on the port infrastructure and incoming and outgoing vessels.”
In the Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report, the FAS also projected a year-on-year production increase for Ukraine’s major grain crops, with 2023/24 wheat production expected to rise by 11% to 22.5M tonnes, corn production expected to increase by almost 17% to 30.5M tonnes, while barley output was forecast at 5.9M tonnes, a 2% increase from 2022/23.
