Despite an escalation of military attacks on Ukrainian ports and port infrastructure by Russia, there had been no major damage to processing capacities, UkrAgroConsult wrote.
Losses were mainly limited to finished products and storage infrastructure, posing no critical threat to the industry’s overall functioning, according to the 29 January report.
The Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports were a major shock to the sunflower oil sector and the market had reacted with a sharp increase in oil and oilseed prices, accompanied by a temporary halt in trading, UkrAgroConsult wrote.
Following the initial shock, the market had adapted with exporters resuming contract fulfilment and sunflower oil exports remaining relatively stable, the report said.
Port logistics remain a key export driver, with smooth port activity determining export volumes, according to the report.
Railway routes could only play a supporting role and were unable to fully replace sea transportation, the report said.
If access to ports deteriorated, there was an increased risk of the market switching to a raw material export model, UkrAgroConsult wrote.
In an earlier report, UkrAgroConsult wrote that China became the leading importer of Ukrainian rapeseed meal for the first time in the first half of the 2025/26 marketing year (July-December), with shipments of 155,000 tonnes.
Despite the increase, the bulk of China’s rapeseed meal imports were shipped from Russia and India, with some from the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the 27 January report said.
Meanwhile, improved trade relations between China and Canada and the reciprocal reduction of import duties may impact Ukrainian exports to China, according to the report.
From July-December, Ukrainian rapeseed meal exports increased by 70% compared to the same period in the previous season to 340,000 tonnes, the second largest export volume for the first half of the season since 2023/24, when 374,000 tonnes of meal were shipped.
The growth in export rates was due to increased rapeseed processing in the first half of the season to 800,000 tonnes, following the introduction of a 10% export duty on rapeseed and an improvement in processing margins, the report said.
Meanwhile, rapeseed meal sales remain complicated and domestic consumption was slowing, according to the report.
For this reason, companies often made price discounts to prevent the accumulation of stocks, UkrAgroConsult wrote.
In addition, import demand for rapeseed meal from the European Union (EU) – Ukraine’s closest large buyer – in the current season had also reduced due to a significant domestic rapeseed harvest and active imports of lower cost Canadian canola, the report said.
Ukrainian rapeseed meal exports to the EU declined from 171,000 tonnes in the first half of the previous season to 71,000 tonnes, while Canada, which did not supply meal to the EU last year, increased its exports to the bloc to 436,000 tonnes.
As a result, Ukrainian companies had sought other markets, particularly China, which was experiencing a shortage of rapeseed meal, as it could not fully compensate for reduced imports from Canada the previous year.
