Sunflowerseed production in Ukraine is forecast to increase by 14% in the 2023/24 marketing year to 12.7M tonnes, according to new estimates by the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) reported by AgriCensus.
The increase in production – and an increase in planted area of 800,000 ha – could lead to total sunflowerseed exports rising to 1.2M tonnes and domestic sunflowerseed processing increasing to 11.5M tonnes, the 1 June report said.
Rapeseed output was projected to increase by 3% to 3.8M tonnes, with exports reaching 3.5M tonnes.
UGA estimated soyabean production would reach 4.4M tonnes, almost 19% higher year-on-year, with the estimated export potential rising to 3M tonnes, AgriCensus wrote.
Total potential grain and oilseeds exports in 2023/24 were forecast to drop to 43.9M tonnes due to an expected drop in production, according to UGA’s data.
The forecast was 22% below UGA’s estimate for the current 2022/23 marketing year, which started with high stocks amid the war and a total figure of 56.4M tonnes.
“A sharp drop for the future crop is expected due to the occupation of Ukrainian territories, mined territories, and continued hostilities, as well as the lack of funds and other resources for farmers for a fully-fledged sowing campaign and crop cultivation,” the UGA said.
UGA said its forecasts would only be realistic if the Black Sea grains corridor continued to operate and was not affected by further suspensions or interruptions, AgriCensus wrote.
Total barley, corn and wheat exports were forecast at 2M tonnes, 19M tonnes and 15M tonnes, respectively.