US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire between the USA and Yemen’s Houthi rebels is not expected to restore freedom of navigation through the Red Sea in the near future, according to a report by The Soufan Center.
In a statement on 6 May, Trump said the Houthis had told the USA “they don’t want to fight anymore,” and “[the USA] will honour that, and we will stop the bombings,” the 7 May report said.
Confirming the agreement on behalf of the Houthis, Badr bin Hamad al Busaidi, the Foreign Minister of the Sultanate of Oman, which hosts a Houthi representative office and mediated the truce, posted a statement on X.
“In the future, neither side will target the other, including American vessels, in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab Strait, ensuring freedom of navigation and the smooth flow of international commercial shipping,” his post said.
Senior Houthi official Abdul Salam said the deal did not include an end to attacks on Israel, which had conducted two rounds of retaliatory strikes on Yemen in the week the Red Sea ceasefire was announced, the BBC wrote on 7 May.
While welcoming the pact, global diplomats and experts cast doubts on its benefits, citing the formal statements from the parties that the truce was narrow and bilateral – leaving open the potential for the Houthis to continue attacking non-US targets in the Red Sea and the broader region, The Soufan Center wrote on 12 May.
Trump and other senior US leaders had not said if they would consider new Houthi attacks on non-US commercial ships in the Red Sea a violation of the pact.
Due to the ambiguities and uncertainties of the truce, large international shipping companies will not resume using the Red Sea route in the near future, according to a report by the Wall Street Journal.
Despite the ceasefire announcement, representatives of the large Danish shipping liner AP Moller-Maersk said publicly in the week before the report that they were not ready to send ships through the Red Sea.
The hesitancy of global liners to return to the Red Sea casts doubt on Trump officials’ assertions that the ceasefire accomplished the objectives of Operation Rough Rider to restore the free flow of commerce and navigation in the region, according to the report.
The Houthis’ acceptance of the ceasefire backed up assessments by US and regional officials that US air operations had severely degraded the Houthis’ arsenal and economic means to continue their attacks in the Red Sea and the broader region, The Soufan Center wrote.
Trump described the agreement as Houthi “capitulation” to Operation Rough Rider, a sustained and intensive campaign of US strikes on Houthi targets since 15 March.
During the operation, US aircraft deployed on aircraft carriers in the Red Sea attacked more than 1,000 targets, including Houthi missile and drone facilities but also fighters, commanders, missile technicians, energy and port facilities, and other installations. The strikes reportedly killed hundreds of Houthi personnel but also dozens of civilians not necessarily connected with the group, the report said.
The Houthis had sought an end to the intensive and continuous US strikes since mid-March, but US acceptance of a ceasefire also demonstrates the limitations of American airpower, according to the report.
Trump’s agreement to a truce reflected the growing financial and operational costs of the airstrike campaign, estimated at more than US$2bn, as well as the broader geostrategic difficulties caused by diverting US assets from other key regional and global missions to the anti-Houthi campaign, the report said.
Meanwhile, others attributed Trump’s acceptance of the ceasefire to growing international criticism that Operation Rough Rider was causing increasing numbers of civilian casualties and worsening the humanitarian situation in Yemen.
