Global oilseed production in 2022/23 is expected to rise by 2M tonnes to 647M tonnes, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)’s October report on the sector.
The increase is due to larger Brazilian soyabean and EU rapeseed crops more than offsetting smaller US soyabean and Canadian rapeseed production, according to the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) report.
Global crushing estimates was raised slightly due to higher Brazilian and Chinese soyabean and EU rapeseed processing.
The USDA said oilseed trade in 2022/23 would be marginally higher due to increased soyabean exports from Argentina and Brazil.
Total global oilseeds stocks would increase, mainly due to higher soyabean stocks in Brazil.
Global protein meal and oil production, and consumption, would be higher, in line with changes to oilseed production and crushing.
For 2021/22, the USDA forecasts global oilseed production to rise slightly to 605M tonnes due to increased soyabean crops in Brazil, Uruguay and the USA.
"Oilseed trade is up fractionally due to higher Argentina and Uruguay soyabean exports. Global oilseed ending stocks are up on higher soyabean carryout in Argentina, Brazil and the USA.”
The USDA said protein meal production would rise in 2021/22, but global trade would remain almost flat as higher soyabean meal exports from Brazil and Paraguay, and more India rapeseed meal exports, would offset lower Argentine soyabean meal exports.
Meal consumption would be up marginally, according to the report, while global vegetable oil trade would fall, mainly due to lower Indonesia and Malaysia palm oil exports.
In Argentina, soyabean exports surged in September following the government’s introduction of a special exchange rate for producers.
According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, farmers sold over 16M tonnes of soyabeans in September, or 37% of the total estimated 2021/22 Argentine soyabean crop.
For 2022/23, the USDA is increasing its soya forecasts for Argentine exports by 2.3M tonnes to 7M tonnes. If realised, the country would retain its position as the world’s third largest soyabean exporter after falling behind Canada, Paraguay and Uruguay in recent years.
Strong soyabean exports were expected to reduce available supplies for crushing and product exports.
However, crushing forecasts were still expected to increase due to the larger 2022/23 crop.
“Argentina soyabean crush is likely to remain slow until harvesting the 2022/23 crop due to tight supplies and weaker crush margins as plummeting palm oil prices have dragged global vegetable oil prices down,” the report said.
In Indonesia, palm oil exports plunged in 2021/22 due to trade policies, the USDA said.
“Revisions to Indonesia’s palm oil export policies in 2022 have hampered total exports for marketing year 2021/22 which are now estimated at 22.65M tonnes, the lowest level since 2015/16,” the report said.
The USDA said the resumption of palm oil exports from Indonesia had driven down global palm oil prices and increased the discount between palm and soyabean oil to record levels, offering some relief to global vegetable oil markets.
“In the new marketing year 2022/23 beginning in October, palm oil shipments are expected to rebound to 28.5M tonnes assuming no new export bans,” the report said.
