Olive oil production in the European Union (EU) – the world’s leading producer of olive oil accounting for around 60% of global supply – is expected to decline slightly in 2025/26 due to heat, drought conditions and pest issues across key producing regions, according to a report by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Despite the slight dip in output, production would remain above the average of the previous five years, the 6 January ‘EU Olive Oil Outlook 2025’ report said.
The USDA estimated that production in the 27-member bloc would fall from 2.1M tonnes in 2024/25 to 2M tonnes in the current crop year.
“Olive oil production in the EU is expected to stay marginally below previous season levels, as long-awaited fall precipitation only arrived in the second half of November, leaving little room for initial production forecasts to expand,” wrote Marta Guerrero, a senior agriculture specialist at the USDA, and author of the report.
This was particularly evident in Spain – which accounts for around 45% of the global market and 65% of EU production – where the USDA forecast production of 1.37M tonnes in 2025/26, broadly in line with estimates from the country’s agriculture ministry.
According to official estimates, olive oil yields were expected to decline by 5% in Andalusia, 17% in Castile-La Mancha and increase by 5% in Extremadura.
Italian olive oil production was estimated at 280,000 tonnes. While average oil yields doubled to 20%, Guerrero cited prolonged summer drought in Puglia and the spread of the olive fruit fly in central and northern regions as key factors limiting production.
“Calabria shows a good to very good harvest, emerging as one of the season’s highlights,” Guerrero added.
“Sicily’s production is highly uneven, with some areas reporting heavy yields and others far lighter ones.”
In contrast, central and northern Italy were facing a challenging year, she continued.
“After last season’s abundant harvest, trees are entering their natural low-yield cycle, compounded by July heatwaves and persistent olive fly infestations.”
In Greece, the USDA forecast a 15% decline in olive oil production to 210,000 tonnes, due to a hot, dry summer and widespread olive fruit fly infestation across major producing regions.
Production was also expected to fall in Portugal, dropping from 177,000 tonnes in 2024/25 to 150,000 tonnes in the current harvest.
Despite the modest decline in EU olive oil production, final results from the 2025/26 crop year were expected to remain well above the historic lows of 2022/23 and 2023/24, when extreme heat and drought had severely impacted harvests in Spain, the report said.
As a result, the USDA forecast a slight rise in EU olive oil consumption to 1.425M tonnes. Exports were expected to increase to 765,000 tonnes, while imports were projected to total 200,000 tonnes.
“The production recovery in 2024/25, combined with the accelerated pace of exports, has resulted in EU export levels resembling pre-drought years, despite low beginning stocks,” Guerrero wrote.
