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The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has lowered its sunflowerseed production forecasts in the 2022/23 marketing year for Argentina and the Russian Federation, UkrAgroConsult reported.

Analysts also expect these forecasts to be reduced further, leading to a lower overall balance for sunflowerseed for the period, according to the 10 February report.

Compared with the USDA’s January estimate, the global sunflowerseed production forecast for the 2022/23 marketing year was reduced by 0.31M tonnes to 50.77M. This compared to 57.31M tonnes in the 2021/22 marketing year and 49.2M tonnes the previous year.

For Argentina, the forecast was reduced by 0.2M tonnes to 4.4M tonnes. For Russia, the earlier forecast was reduced by 0.5M tonnes to 16M tonnes.

However, according to Rosstat data, a total of 15.3M tonnes had been harvested in Russia by the end of December and 1M ha remained to be harvested.

For Ukraine, the harvest forecast was increased by 0.4M tonnes to 10.4M tonnes.

The sunflowerseed export forecast for Argentina in the 2022/23 marketing year was reduced by 50,000 tonnes to 200,000 tonnes, but increased for Ukraine by 0.2M tonnes to a record 2.65M tonnes.

Due to active exports from Ukraine, the import forecast for the European Union was increased by 50,000 tonnes to 2.9M tonnes.

With Ukraine continuing to restore energy supplies to industry, the prospects for sunflowerseed processing were expected to improve, which led the USDA to increase its estimate for domestic processing by 0.5M tonnes to 10M tonnes, UkrAgroConsult wrote.

The forecast for final global stocks of sunflowerseed was reduced by 0.88M tonnes to 4.85M tonnes, while stocks in Ukraine were reduced by 0.3M tonnes to 1.85M and Russian stocks were lowered by 0.5M tonnes to 0.74M tonnes.