The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has reduced its US soyabean yield and production forecasts in its latest crop protection report, World Grain wrote.
In its 12 September report, the USDA had forecast a soyabean yield of 50.5 bushels/acre, a 2.7% drop compared to August’s projection of 51.9 bushels/acre, the report said.
Soyabean production was estimated at 4.378bn bushels, a 3.4% drop compared to the record August forecast of 4.531bn bushels, according to the 15 September report.
As well as falling below the average trade expectation of 4.496bn bushels produced with a yield of 51.5 bushels/acre, the USDA’s September estimates were also outside the expected range of trade expectations, World Grain wrote.
“People were not positioned well for that kind of a cut, and the market showed their surprise,” Global Risk Management executive director and owner Brian Harris was quoted as saying.
Analysts were also surprised by the soyabean crushing forecast in the USDA’s 12 September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, with 2022-23 forecasts reduced from 2.245bn bushels the previous month to 2.225 bn bushels.
“The 20M bushel cut in crush was surprising because we’re looking at record-high crush margins all the way out through the first half of next year,” Harris added.
