Global oilseed production, consumption and trade are all forecast to rise in the current marketing year, according to the May oilseeds report by the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Production this year was projected to reach 647M tonnes – an 8% increase – with soyabean production forecast to rise by 45M tonnes to almost 395M tonnes, a 13% increase.
The growth in production was mainly due to a rise in soyabean output in South America and the USA, alongside an increase in rapeseed production in Canada and the European Union (EU) more than offsetting sunflowerseed output losses in Ukraine and Russia, the report said.
Global oilseed consumption is forecast to rise 3% in 2022/23, driven by higher China soyabean demand with soyabean crushing and consumption projected to account for most of the growth. Sunflowerseed
consumption is projected to drop 3%, while rapeseed consumption is forecast to rise by 7%.
A rise in global oilseed trade is also forecast this year mainly due to higher soyabean demand from China, according to the report, with trade in soyabeans, rapeseed, sunflowerseeds and peanuts expected to increase.
The USDA projected a rise in global ending stocks due to growing soyabean production and stocks in South America and the USA.
Global vegetable oil production is expected to grow by 3%, with major gains for soyabeans, rapeseed and palm oil, more than offsetting losses for sunflowerseed and olive oil, according to the report, while vegetable oil consumption is forecast to rise by almost 4.6M tonnes (2%), mainly driven by palm and soyabean growth in China.
Worldwide vegetable oil trade was expected to strengthen in 2022/23 due to strong recovery in palm oil and rapeseed oil import growth, with global vegetable oil ending stocks projected to rise by 4% to over 28M tonnes.
Global palm oil production in 2022/23 is forecast to rise with the return of favourable weather patterns in Southeast Asia, according to the report, while Malaysia is expected to resolve labour shortages caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Palm oil exports in Indonesia and Malaysia are forecast to increase by 4M and 300,000 tonnes respectively to 29M tonnes and 16.7M tonnes.
“Palm oil remains the largest vegetable oil consumed for food and industrial use. Rising output and increased demand boost global palm oil trade. Higher demand is expected in major markets including the EU, China, and India as well other countries. Ending stocks are up as production outpaces consumption,” the report said.
Palm oil imports increased by 2.2M tonnes to 7.2M tonnes in China, by 400,000 tonnes to 6.2M tonnes in the EU, and by 300,000 tonnes to 8.1M in India.
Consumption was down 600,000 tonnes to 17.5M tonnes in Indonesia due to high oil prices, up 100,000 tonnes to 8.4M in India and up 1.3M tonnes to 7.1M tonnes in China.
Global palm kernel oilseed production in 2022/2023 is forecast to rise in line with expected growth in palm oil output.
Olive oil production in 2022/23 is forecast at 2.9M tonnes, down 11% due to lower crop projections for the EU, Morocco, Tunisia and Turkey, according to the report, while global olive oil consumption is projected to fall by 7% due to lower supplies, with the decline mainly seen in price-sensitive countries.
The EU is projected to remain the leading consumer of olive oil, accounting for nearly half the total, followed by the USA with a 13% share. Global exports are forecast to decline by 11% due to lower supplies from major producers, while global imports are also projected to drop and global stocks will continue tightening. EU ending stocks are forecast down to a six-year low at 301,000 tonnes.
